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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Thu 6th Sep 2012 - Noble Inns, Turtle Bay and Brasserie Blanc

Story of the day:

Noble Inns opens third site to rave reviews: Noble Inns, the company run by former Pitcher and Piano managers Scott Hunter and Maria Larsen, has opened its third pub, The Pig and Butcher in Islington, to rave reviews from The Independent and The Evening Standard. The pair, whose company joined the ALMR earlier this year, has established their company as one of the rising stars of the London gastro-pub scene. Their first pub, The Princess of Shoreditch, won Time Out Gastro-Pub of the Year in 2010. Noble’s second pub, Punch’s The Lady of Ottoline, opened last year and also earned very favourable reviews. The latest opening has seen Enterprise’s Islington Tap transformed with a £250,000 investment. Takings have increased five-fold since it re-opened and The Evening Standard described it as “serving food worth getting fat for” yesterday. Hunter, who worked for Pitcher & Piano for seven years, told Morning Briefing: “We’ve had a very low-key opening because myself and Maria got married last month. But we haven’t had to do any PR – we’ve been completely rammed every night.” Noble Inns is forecasting turnover in excess of £4m this coming year - expansion so far has been completely self-funded from the runaway success of their first two pubs. “We were offered another pub yesterday - it’s just not quite the right time to open another one.”

Industry news:

MPs take issue with Barclays over interest rate swap mis-selling: Eight MPs have written to new Barclays chief executive Antony Jenkins protesting over the bank’s ‘disappointing’ response on interest rate swap mis-selling. The letter accuses Barclays of failing to tackle the ‘difficult and distressing problem’ which the MPs claimed was ‘threatening the long-term viability’ of hundreds of small and medium-sized companies. The MPs urged Jenkins to explain how the bank intended to release companies from swap arrangements and to guard them from 'punitive measures' if they claimed compensation. Barclays was one of four high street banks, alongside Lloyds, HSBC and RBS, to admit to mis-selling interest rate hedges to business customers in June. The banks agreed to compensate customers and to stop selling the most complicated products. The eight MPs are led by Emma Reynolds, the Labour member for Wolverhampton North East. Multi-site pub operator Sarumdale blamed an interest rate swap forced upon them Barclays for the demise of the company in early summer. Businesses are in line for compensation if they fit two of three criteria – employ fewer than 50 people, have an annual turnover under £6.5m or a balance sheet of less than £3.3m when they took out the their loan. Of the 28,000 firms sold swaps, 12,000 were with RBS, 7,000 with HSBC, 5,000 with Barclays and 4,000 with Lloyds.

Propel Opinion: A number of operators have told Propel they feel they were mis-sold interest rate swaps. At least one bank has been pro-active in telling operators that swaps they took out will be investigated independently. But operators who still bank with the same bank that they feel forced a swap upon them are in an invidious position. “I do feel that if I make waves on this it will jeopardise my relationship with the bank,” one operator tells Propel. It’s a difficult situation and the group of MPs are right to seek reassurances from the banks on how they will treat existing customers who pursue claims.

ALMR – be aware of disruption in London next Monday: The Olympic and Paralympic Victory Parade will take place on Monday 10 September extending the likelihood of disruptions to travel and transport by an extra day beyond the marathons and closing ceremony of the Paralympic Games on Sunday 9 September. Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers strategic affairs director Kate Nicholls said: “London-based operators need to be aware of this so that they can plan around any disruptions and maximise the opportunities afforded by the large crowds.” The parade, celebrating ‘Our Greatest Team’, is anticipated to exceed previous victory parades in respect of its size and crowd numbers, with over 200,000 spectators expected to attend. Beginning at Mansion House at 1.30pm, a series of 221 floats will transport the 800 athletes through central London to finish at Buckingham Palace at approximately 4pm.

SIBA to launch Beer X event: The Society of Independent Brewers (SIBA) is staging a new, four-day celebration of British beer, targeting brewers, licensees and consumers. Titled BeerX, the event takes place in Sheffield next March. BeerX combines the highlights of the SIBA calendar, including the annual brewing conference, which was attended by over 500 delegates this year and its business awards. New is a three-day beer festival at which SIBA’s 550-plus member brewers will have the opportunity to sell their beers to consumers. This will be the first time that SIBA brewers from all corners of the country will have brought their beers together under one roof.

New York restaurants are amassing more information on customers: The New York Times has reported that computer software and internet companies, such as reservation systems like OpenTable and Rezbook, are allowing service to be pushed to another level because restaurants can gather much more information on customers. OpenTable provides restaurants with a customer’s e-mail address, special requests and a note indicating whether the person is an OpenTable VIP, a customer who has used the service at least a dozen times in the last year. OpenTable’s software then allows restaurants to add information, which is called up when a customer arrives.

Battersea power station to become new town: The new owner of Battersea power station, the last major piece of undeveloped riverside land in central London, will look to create a “new town centre”. They will develop a new high street with shops and restaurants, as well as 3,400 new homes and a “spectacular public space” next to the Thames at the 26-acre site.

Company news:

Jonathan Kaye – “Chimichanga has proved itself in smaller towns”: Prezzo chief executive Jonathan Kaye has told Morning Briefing that the company’s Mexican food concept Chimichanga has now proven itself in smaller towns and cities like Farnham, Bromley and Canterbury in the past year. The brand has added ten sites in the last year to take it to 21 venues – a doubling of the size of a brand that took eight years to get to ten sites. Kaye said: “The brand has had good success in areas where we previously doubted its potential. I think the country now gets Mexican (food).” Kaye said that the company has found it was unnecessary to discount at Chimchanga because the brand was invariably unopposed by other Mexican brands – a contrast to the more crowded pizza market. He said: “When we open on a high street we’ve usually got that market to ourselves.” Kaye reported that Chimichanga site turnover and Ebitda is broadly similar to its main Prezzo brand. Chimichanga is now expected to account for around one-third of new Prezzo openings.

Whitbread – Olympics provided a “modest benefit”: Whitbread has reported that the Olympics provided a modest benefit to its Premier Inns business, primarily through increased room rate, with occupancy slightly down on last year. Reporting on the 11 weeks to 16 August, chief executive Andy Harrison said this morning: “The cap on our London prices, to maintain Premier Inn’s positioning for great value, constrained revpar growth. Restaurants continued to improve, benefitting from a wide range of management actions, driving an increase in like-for-like sales of 4.9 per cent. Costa had yet another strong quarter with like-for-like sales up 5.7 per cent and total sales up 25.3 per cent, as we continue to grow at pace in both the UK and selected overseas markets. Whitbread has continued to deliver good sales growth with total sales up 14.8 per cent in our second quarter. Our brands have outperformed in a tough economic climate, with like-for-like sales growth of 4.3 per cent and we have continued our network expansion at Costa and Premier Inn.”

Marler takes advantage of Wetherspoon semi-retreat from St Albans: Veteran leisure entrepreneur Andrew Marler, who sold Wetherspoon founder Tim Martin his first ever site in Muswell Hill, the free-of-tie 500 square foot Marler’s, has opened Baroque Bar and Grill in a site sold to him by JD Wetherspoon. JD Wetherspoon still operates a Lloyds No 1 venue in St Albans, but decided to sell its second site, The Cross Keys, to Marler amid a wave of new openings. Baroque serves grilled meats prepared on an Inka charcoal grill. Marler’s other venue is The Old Manor Bar & Restaurant in Potters Bar. Tim Martin ran Marler’s for around six months under its original name until customers smashed his windows on New Year’s Eve – and he changed the name to Wetherspoon after a New Zealand teacher with poor class control.

Douglas Jack – Fuller’s £50m of pub acquisitions would drive earnings: Numis Securities analyst Douglas Jack has argued that Fuller’s expansion, in the form of a theoretical £50m acquisition of pubs at 10x Ebitda, would boost 2014 earnings by five per cent. He said: “In our view, it is probable expansion will drive additional growth and equity upside over the medium-term. Fuller’s has a sector-leading track record, reflecting the quality of its assets, brand, management and operating standards. Combined with having the strongest balance sheet, a low cost of debt and relatively small corporate scale, these factors make Fullers the best-placed licensed retailer to enhance earnings through further expansion, which we believe should occur. Despite the decline in consumer confidence during 2010 and 2011, the pub sector has returned to demand growth (in value terms). It has coped with officially the wettest summer in 100 years with minimal change to forecasts and can now look forward to lower cost inflation (particularly for Fullers, Marston’s, Spirit Pub Company and Mitchells & Butlers) and easier weather-related comparatives in 2013. Fuller’s continues to command a justifiable premium valuation.”

Turtle Bay to open third site in Nottingham: Caribbean restaurant brand Turtle Bay will open its third site in Nottingham’s Cornerhouse in October. The concept, which offers dishes like Curry Goat, Jerk Chicken and Jamaican Fried Bait, served up from a street style open kitchen, has existing sites in Milton Keynes and Southampton. Founder Ajith Jayawickrema, one of the founders of Las Iguanas, said: “We are trying to recreate a holiday vibe right here in Nottingham with our open street kitchen and island beach bar. We want to offer our customers something unique, after all everyone has tried the likes of Italian, Chinese and American food. Nottingham seemed like a fantastic choice for our third restaurant and The Cornerhouse is a perfect location in the city centre, close to the theatre and the two universities.” Turtle Bay also serves 30 different Caribbean rums from a centrally-located beach bar. Meanwhile, Red Hot World Buffet, which has operated in Nottingham since 2004 is to relocate to The Cornerhouse from its current Lace Market site.

Geof Collyer – a nil premium merger between Stonegate and Spirit could work: Deutsche Bank analyst Geof Collyer has argued the case for a nil-premium merger between Stonegate Pub Company and Spirit. Collyer said: “As with M&B and Greene King, we think that the needs of both parties could be settled without the need for any cash changing hands. This could be an extreme under-estimation, especially where private equity is concerned. However, we think (Stonegate owner) TDR Capital could be playing a long game, and because it used equity (it’s own cash) not debt (someone else’s cash) to buy the M&B pubs and because the Town & City Pubs deal was a merger without any cash seemingly changing hands, we think that a second deal without paying out any cash could appeal – especially if it provided a longer term way out of its investment, or gave it acquisition currency in the form of quoted equity to continue its plans for consolidating the pub space. There is certainly no scope in our view for any cash sweeteners for this merger, with securitisation bond amortisation starting in 2014 – a point at which we think Spirit’s dividend will be uncovered by operating cash flows after investment in the existing estate and after funding bond amortisation. This latter point is important, given Spirit’s need to refinance some of its debt in the near future. Having a less stressed cash flow and balance sheet would put the group in a far better light with the bond markets. We can see the attractions of a possible merger for TDR and for Stonegate, given its drive to be a consolidator.”

Douglas Jack – Prezzo sales fell by 1.5 per cent in first half: Numis Securities analyst Douglas Jack has reported Prezzo’s first half profit before tax, up four per cent to £7.6m, is slightly behind his forecast (£7.8m) due to a slight reduction in average sales and a 100bps decline in EBIT margins during a challenging trading period for the company. He said: “We estimate average sales fell 1.5 per cent in the first half (total sales up 14.3 per cent; average number of restaurants up 15.8 per cent) against tough comparatives due to the company being unable to recoup sales lost during a poor first six weeks to the year. EBITDA margins fell 40bps due to a combination of higher food and utility costs as well as lower average sales. Prezzo’s site pipeline (covering openings for the next 18 months) supports 25 planned openings this year, of which 12 opened in H1. Of these, three were Chimichanga Mexican restaurants, which is now in 20 leisure/retail parks. This level of expansion reflects the good (25 per cent+ cash) returns that are being achieved. The shares trade at a 14 per cent P/E and EV/EBITDA discount to The Restaurant Group (RTN) largely due to Prezzo’s limited liquidity and RTN’s recent operational out-performance. However, over the last three years, Prezzo has generated double RTN’s profit growth, partly due to a smaller starting position and partly due to superior LFL sales and margins. Both stocks are fairly valued, in our view.”

Loungers opens latest site in Christchurch: Loungers, the café bar concept headed by Alex Reilley and backed by Piper Private Equity, opened its latest site in Christchurch, Dorset yesterday. Arcado Lounge opened after Loungers won a protracted planning battle that saw an application to convert a shop turned down twice before Loungers won the go-ahead on appeal.

Cattle Grid takes sixth site: Cattle Grid steak restaurant and grill has acquired its sixth site. The brand, which has sites in Balham, Leeds, Windsor and Kingston has acquired the leasehold interest of The Establishment bar and restaurant on Battersea Rise, close to the Clapham Common Start, from Rising Star Leisure. The premises, which total approximately 3,175 sq ft, were assigned on the remainder of a 30 year lease at a passing rent of £105,000 per annum, with a premium of £100,000 paid for the free of tie lease. Paul Tallentyre, director of pubs and bars at Davis Coffer Lyons, which acted for Rising Star in assigning the lease, said: “Battersea is now home to some of the restaurant sector’s real shining stars, such as Soif, Draft House, Byron and Franco Manca. The rising number of multiple operators and quality independents taking sites has enabled Battersea to lead the charge for competitive rents in south west London and is now at the top of many operators’ lists. I’m sure Cattle Grid will perform exceptionally well here.” Rising Star Leisure continues to run Underdog in Clapham and The Dime bar and restaurant in Battersea.

Two iconic Folkestone freeholds hit the market for £1.3m: Two iconic freehold pubs on the waterfront in Folkestone, Gillespies and The True Briton, have gone on the market for £1.3m. Robert Cockayne, who is handling this sale at agent Christie + Co, said: “Gillespies is a well-known sports bar, popular with both loyal locals and visitors, whereas The True Briton caters for live music, ale lovers and diners. With the potential to knock through and integrate both pubs into one, the possibilities are endless.”

Mark Derry - Brasserie Blanc set to hit £40m turnover: Brasserie Blanc, the restaurant group headed by Mark Derry that acquired eight key Chez Gerard sites for £9m, expects to increase turnover to around £40m from last year’s £15.7m in the wake of the deal. Derry told Management Today that three new Brasserie Blancs in the City had been clipped by the Olympics with office workers taking holidays or working at home. The company has also introduced a new £11.50 lunchtime menu in an ultra-competitive marketplace. He said: “Lunch is the hardest business, we have seen declining covers at lunch for the first time. You can get a pizza for four quid even though they are mostly horrid.” The former flagship Chez Gerard Operate Terrace site is serving 6,000 covers a week with taking ahead of expectations. The venue took more than £90,000-a-week under previous ownership and a £1.3m refit has lifted turnover to around £120,000-a-week. Derry added: “I reckon we'll turn over £40m and The Opera Terrace alone will do £6m.”

Perthshire Taverns reduces cost of Lauder hotel: Perthshire Taverns has reduced the price of its eight-bedroom hotel in Lauder to £550,000. The company has owned the property since 2008, but wants to sell to allow it to concentrate on its other business interests elsewhere in Scotland.

Britvic and AG Barr confirm talks in progress: Soft drinks firms Britvic and AG Barr have confirmed “preliminary discussions” over an all share merger of AG Barr and Britvic. However, the statement went much further than usual in confirming many aspects of how a merger would look. The statement said: “A merger would create one of the leading soft drinks companies in Europe, with a strong portfolio of market leading brands. The combination would have compelling industrial logic and represents an opportunity for both companies to enhance their industry position, and achieve significant synergies and shareholder value. Discussions are at an early stage and, whilst there can be no certainty at this stage that such discussions will conclude successfully, agreement has been reached with respect to certain key aspects of the merger. It is agreed that Britvic shareholders would own 63 per cent and AG Barr shareholders 37 per cent of the enlarged group's share capital.” The statement even confirmed who would get the keys jobs at the merged companies – AG Barr chief executive Roger White would become chief executive of the combined group.

Collyer – Would Marston’s be better off investing in its better tenanted pubs?: Deutsche Bank leisure analyst Geof Collyer has questioned whether Marston’s, which is converting the 600 bottom-end pubs out of an estate of 1,600 to a hybrid Retail Agreement, would be better off investing in its better tenanted pubs. He said: “Marston’s has now had four sets of results in which it has published specific details on the performance of its Retail Agreement estate. Marston’s has stated that the cumulative £30m investment should deliver a 20 per cent EBITA return on investment. In addition to this spend, there is maintenance capex and development capex going into the 1,000 strong core estate – we estimate around £90m between 2010 and 2014. We estimate that over the five year period of the investment plan average EBITA per core pub should rise by 14 per cent, helped by disposals as well as development, whilst the RA estate should see it rise by 73 per cent, but to not much above £23,000 per pub. We see the problem here being that our forecast EBITA increase is just £7.2m on £120m of investment. Investors have to decide whether this cash would have been better invested in the better quality end of the estate, with the bottom end sold off.”

Masala World curbs expansion plan because of immigration rules; follows Busaba Eathai: Seven-strong Masala World has become the latest restaurant chain to halt its UK expansion programme on account of new immigration rules limiting its access to foreign chefs. The scrapping of the points-based immigration system has also led to Alan Yau deciding to focus on a de-skilled cafe version of Busaba Eathai – he will open Naamya in Islington next month.

Whitbread loses Premier Inn marketing boss to Carnival UK: Gerard Tempest will leave his position as sales and marketing director for Whitbread’s hotels and restaurants division in November to join cruise company Carnival UK as its chief operating officer. A Carnival spokesman said: “Gerard brings with him a very impressive track record and has over 20 years’ experience of the hospitality industry in senior commercial and marketing positions.”

Landlord launches on-site microbrewery with a difference: Landlord Tom Gee has opened a micro-brewery at The Red Lion pub in Cricklade, Wiltshire that will have several points-of-difference. This winter, he plans a private dining space inside the brewery with the option of an ale-themed menu. A private beer club will also soon be launched, where members can get the chance to brew and bottle their own ales.

Burton-style ale set to enter the Spanish market: A Burton-based brewer is helping a Spanish businessman brew Burton-style ale in Spain. John Saville, from the Burton Old Cottage Beer Company, will next month head out to Madrid to help launch a microbrewery set up by Spaniard David Gill. Said Saville: “David has purchased English hops and malt and I’m getting together a pallet of peripheral equipment so he’ll have all the elements of setting up a proper cellar. He has a well where he lives but he will need to ‘Burtonise’ the water — that’s going to be the key thing for his ability to reproduce Burton-style beer.”

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